You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
no lean-grade Over 6 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 2 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Alex Tosi (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDKyle Freeland 18.6/5.1 · Walker Buehler 20.6/9.0
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 6.0 vs 6 typical at Coors Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 23.8 · away 20.3
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved -0.5 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 6).
The total line has moved +2.5 since the grade (anchor 11).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
San Diego Padres3Colorado Rockies9FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| SD | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | — | 9 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Over 6.0 · landed 5 · LOST
no lean Under 11.0 runs · landed 12 · LOST