Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5346109007680556,
"p_shipped": 0.5199937808466192,
"model_mu": 5.75798275414678,
"market_p": 0.518041237113402,
"divergence": 0.01656966365465362,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 6.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.4382,
"contribution": 0.24869,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 66 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2716,
"contribution": 0.15414,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_gap_med",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1364,
"contribution": 0.07743,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.092,
"contribution": -0.0522,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.0619,
"contribution": 0.03511,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T23:30:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5279745012105342,
"p_shipped": 0.5085975319924587,
"model_mu": 6.534694271400586,
"market_p": 0.5090439276485788,
"divergence": 0.018930573561955488,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 6.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T23:30:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Altitude (5190 ft) inflates scoring",
"share": 0.3968,
"contribution": 0.19812,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"alt_kft",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 66 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.3087,
"contribution": 0.15414,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_gap_med",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.1551,
"contribution": 0.07743,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"h_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.0703,
"contribution": 0.03511,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.062,
"contribution": -0.03093,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0071,
"contribution": -0.00357,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share",
"a_off_bb30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.45229647142349677,
"p_shipped": 0.4966702641706482,
"model_mu": 9.665791001786216,
"market_p": 0.4910025706940874,
"divergence": -0.038706099270590655,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 11.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.4251,
"contribution": 0.24498,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2768,
"contribution": -0.15951,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1322,
"contribution": -0.07615,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Both teams throw out base stealers",
"share": 0.0873,
"contribution": -0.0503,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30",
"a_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.0786,
"contribution": 0.04529,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T23:30:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4460486078820128,
"p_shipped": 0.4916061960944208,
"model_mu": 10.41110084025781,
"market_p": 0.49484536082474223,
"divergence": -0.04879675294272945,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 11.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T23:30:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
"share": 0.4063,
"contribution": 0.24498,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2645,
"contribution": -0.15951,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
"share": 0.1851,
"contribution": -0.1116,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Heavy travel this week for the home team",
"share": 0.0751,
"contribution": 0.04529,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0689,
"contribution": -0.04156,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
}
]
}
]