You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
B-grade Over 9 (full-game total) — model vs market gap 12 points. The fired signals' value is timing — the close absorbs them. Umpire David Rackley (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this seasonFoster Griffin 21.7/6.4 · Chris Murphy 30.0/10.0
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 9.0 vs 7.5 typical at Progressive Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 18.0 · away 24.6
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY (NOT QUALITY)PRICEDhome 228p/3d (b2b 0) · away 320p/3d (b2b 1) · recent arms: Chris Murphy, Connor Brogdon, Daniel Espino, Erik Sabrowski
CONTEXT CHIPS — FIRST 5
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this seasonFoster Griffin 21.7/6.4 · Chris Murphy 30.0/10.0
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 5.0 vs 4 typical at Progressive Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 18.0 · away 24.6
F5 excludes the bullpen — that's why this market isolates the starters.
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved +0.5 since the grade (anchor 5).
The total line has moved +3.5 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 9).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Chicago White Sox6Cleveland Guardians7FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| CWS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
|---|
| CLE | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Under 5.0 · landed 6 · LOST
B Over 9.0 runs · landed 13 · WON