Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5128878697872533,
"p_shipped": 0.46849607018097084,
"model_mu": 4.713992217247883,
"market_p": 0.4742268041237113,
"divergence": 0.038661065663541994,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~11 mph net",
"share": 0.4212,
"contribution": 0.26666,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
"share": 0.2244,
"contribution": 0.14203,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_il_return",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.2068,
"contribution": -0.13092,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1291,
"contribution": -0.08173,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0185,
"contribution": -0.01169,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_k30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4851080133017574,
"p_shipped": 0.4743214660493262,
"model_mu": 5.019429134624758,
"market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
"divergence": -0.0006801003933329941,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~10 mph net",
"share": 0.4922,
"contribution": 0.25875,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.249,
"contribution": -0.13092,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1555,
"contribution": -0.08173,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
"share": 0.0774,
"contribution": 0.0407,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_il_return",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"a_sp_bf_per_start"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0258,
"contribution": -0.01359,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_k30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5719180915461523,
"p_shipped": 0.4958657052746548,
"model_mu": 8.2013416181567,
"market_p": 0.4974226804123712,
"divergence": 0.07449541113378105,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Both teams' bullpens worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.3267,
"contribution": 0.17487,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~11 mph net",
"share": 0.3023,
"contribution": 0.1618,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2084,
"contribution": -0.11156,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_prev_pitches"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.1271,
"contribution": 0.06801,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0355,
"contribution": 0.01901,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5899329111964541,
"p_shipped": 0.4731642262809988,
"model_mu": 9.208160526117002,
"market_p": 0.4717948717948718,
"divergence": 0.1181380394015823,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Both teams' bullpens worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.4014,
"contribution": 0.17487,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing out, ~10 mph net",
"share": 0.3647,
"contribution": 0.1589,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.1561,
"contribution": 0.06801,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0436,
"contribution": 0.01901,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0341,
"contribution": 0.01484,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_k30"
]
}
]
}
]