You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
C-grade Under 3.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 8 points. The fired signals' value is timing — the close absorbs them. Umpire Nic Lentz (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this seasonGavin Williams 33.5/7.8 · Sean Newcomb 37.1/11.4
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 3.5 vs 4 typical at Progressive Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 17.7 · away 24.4
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved -3 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 3.5).
The total line has moved +1.5 since the grade (anchor 7).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Chicago White Sox7Cleveland Guardians3FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| CWS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
C First-5-innings Under 3.5 · landed 0 · WON
no lean Over 7.0 runs · landed 10 · WON