Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.3517866848438683,
"p_shipped": 0.46205225155977037,
"model_mu": 3.27335009473394,
"market_p": 0.4895287958115184,
"divergence": -0.1377421109676501,
"band": "A",
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Both starters strike out 32% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.5777,
"contribution": -0.45049,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1652,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.1626,
"contribution": -0.12681,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~5 mph net",
"share": 0.0365,
"contribution": -0.02849,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.0337,
"contribution": -0.02627,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0242,
"contribution": -0.0189,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_k30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T21:30:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4086799236274761,
"p_shipped": 0.48226607133971605,
"model_mu": 4.198085562207866,
"market_p": 0.4896373056994819,
"divergence": -0.08095738207200576,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T21:30:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Both starters strike out 32% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.5876,
"contribution": -0.45049,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.2064,
"contribution": -0.1582,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.1458,
"contribution": 0.11175,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.0343,
"contribution": -0.02627,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.026,
"contribution": -0.01994,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_k30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.46642495612807744,
"p_shipped": 0.4804111078164223,
"model_mu": 7.076843973080836,
"market_p": 0.47780678851174935,
"divergence": -0.011381832383671908,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 32% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.4926,
"contribution": -0.3078,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_bf_per_start",
"a_sp_prev_pitches"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.2114,
"contribution": 0.13207,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.1088,
"contribution": 0.06801,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.095,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.0628,
"contribution": -0.03926,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
"share": 0.0294,
"contribution": -0.01835,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T21:30:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5187460923533506,
"p_shipped": 0.48839683312055354,
"model_mu": 8.408133362219559,
"market_p": 0.4845360824742268,
"divergence": 0.03421000987912376,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T21:30:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 32% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.4409,
"contribution": -0.3078,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_bf_per_start",
"a_sp_prev_pitches"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.2162,
"contribution": 0.15091,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
"share": 0.1892,
"contribution": 0.13207,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.0974,
"contribution": 0.06801,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.0562,
"contribution": -0.03926,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
}
]
}
]