You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
A-grade Over 7.5 (full-game total) — model vs market gap 13 points. A validated close edge is in play here. Umpire Edwin Jimenez (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — TOTAL
VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGEHeat × dry air: +10.1% (n=421) when true / -5.1% (n=193) when false — tonight: FALSE
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDJoey Cantillo 24.6/11.9 · Dylan Cease 36.1/10.8
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 7.5 vs 7.5 typical at Progressive Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 17.9 · away 19.2
CONTEXT CHIPS — FIRST 5
VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGEHeat × dry air: +10.1% (n=421) when true / -5.1% (n=193) when false — tonight: FALSE
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDJoey Cantillo 24.6/11.9 · Dylan Cease 36.1/10.8
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 3.5 vs 4 typical at Progressive Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 17.9 · away 19.2
F5 excludes the bullpen — that's why this market isolates the starters.
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
Tonight falls in the unfavorable subgroup: -5.1% (n=193) vs 10.1% (n=421) in the favorable branch.
Conditions have changed since the grade (temp 92→85.2°F) — the frozen grade and reasoning predate this.
The f5_total line has moved +4 since the grade (anchor 3.5).
The total line has moved +4 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 7.5).
Season rates and workload are in the price. Spotter's edge here: validated interaction.
· — OUT
B S OUT
updated — ·
AT BAT
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season line pending
PITCHING
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no pitch data yet
STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT
no pitches yet this at-bat
auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game
Live view warms up once the poller sees this game (SPOTTER_LIVE_VIEW).
Toronto Blue Jays11Cleveland Guardians0FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| TOR | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Over 3.5 · landed 7 · WON
A Over 7.5 runs · landed 11 · WON