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first pitch 5:40 PM CDT
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians

Wed 9/2 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed
TOTAL · OVER 7.5 RUNS
A
A cards like this have won 54% over · market 47% · stake 1u
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 55% over · market 53%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 13-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
92°F — heat carries the ball27%
The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 gamesagainst the over22%
Bullpen leans over — mostly the home team19%
Light travel this week for the away team17%
Defense leans over — mostly the away team16%
Market: Over 7.5 runs at +105 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~8.8 runs · divergence 13 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.4% of 927 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.5 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.
FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.
TOTALFrozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.
anchor Over 7.5 runs +105 → closed +105 · unchanged
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Heavy recent starter workload
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5345489469568767,
  "p_shipped": 0.4811606108637734,
  "model_mu": 4.161507408538869,
  "market_p": 0.4678663239074551,
  "divergence": 0.06668262304942163,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "92\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.4094,
    "contribution": 0.27624,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 34.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.1915,
    "contribution": -0.1292,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_tto_decay"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Both catchers gain extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.1863,
    "contribution": -0.1257,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1199,
    "contribution": -0.08087,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.093,
    "contribution": 0.06272,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T21:30:30Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5617191837118444,
  "p_shipped": 0.54545134584774,
  "model_mu": 4.558297267649805,
  "market_p": 0.5271317829457364,
  "divergence": 0.034587400766108,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 3.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T21:30:30Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "92\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3948,
    "contribution": 0.24067,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 34.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.2119,
    "contribution": -0.1292,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_tto_decay"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Both catchers gain extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.2062,
    "contribution": -0.1257,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1029,
    "contribution": 0.06272,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0842,
    "contribution": 0.0513,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5978581002878691,
  "p_shipped": 0.4811193369914409,
  "model_mu": 7.765465728834755,
  "market_p": 0.47814910025706947,
  "divergence": 0.11970900003079965,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "92\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2756,
    "contribution": 0.19243,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2518,
    "contribution": -0.17581,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1732,
    "contribution": 0.12094,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
    "share": 0.1546,
    "contribution": 0.10789,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1447,
    "contribution": 0.10105,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T21:30:30Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.60120917105115,
  "p_shipped": 0.47150104648839736,
  "model_mu": 8.84707336399486,
  "market_p": 0.4743589743589744,
  "divergence": 0.12685019669217562,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T21:30:30Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "92\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2684,
    "contribution": 0.17344,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2211,
    "contribution": -0.14286,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1872,
    "contribution": 0.12094,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
    "share": 0.167,
    "contribution": 0.10789,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_miles7d_k"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1564,
    "contribution": 0.10105,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]