Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

Thu 9/17 · 11:40 AM CDT · Great American Ball Park

THE EDGE

A-grade Over 5.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 14 points. A validated close edge is in play here. Umpire Scott Barry (confirmed).

CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL

VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGE

Heat × dry air: +10.1% (n=421) when true / -5.1% (n=193) when false — tonight: FALSE

STARTERS K% / BB%PRICED

Brady Singer 18.3/8.2 · Justin Wrobleski 20.2/5.4

MARKET ANCHORPRICED

tonight's line 5.5 vs 4.75 typical at Great American Ball Park this season

LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICED

home 26.2 · away 20.7

CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS

Tonight falls in the unfavorable subgroup: -5.1% (n=193) vs 10.1% (n=421) in the favorable branch.

The f5_total line has moved +3 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 5.5).

The total line has moved +0.5 since the grade (anchor 10).

Season rates and workload are in the price. Spotter's edge here: validated interaction.

LAD

BOT 9 · 3 OUT

B S OUT

updated 2026-09-17T19:23:27Z ·

CIN

AT BAT

Matt McLain

season line pending

PITCHING

Seth Halvorsen

no pitch data yet

STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT

no pitches yet this at-bat

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	2	2	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	8
CIN	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2

auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game

Los Angeles Dodgers8Cincinnati Reds2FINAL

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	2	2	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	8
CIN	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	2

HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED

A First-5-innings Over 5.5 · landed 8 · WON

C Over 10.0 runs · landed 10 · PUSH

TOTAL · OVER 10.0 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% over · market 49%

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 5.5

A cards like this have won 55% over · market 53% · stake 1u