Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

Thu 9/17 · 11:40 AM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 5.5

A cards like this have won 55% over · market 53% · stake 1u

TOTAL · OVER 10.0 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% over · market 49%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 14-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

93°F — heat carries the ball26%

The away starter recently back from injury25%

The home team allowing 6.6 runs a game, last 30 — above league average18%

The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games17%

The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches15%

Market: First-5-innings Over 5.5 at -120 (pinnacle, quoted 10:30 AM CDT) · model expects ~7.1 runs · divergence 14 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.6% of 414 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.7 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 5.5 -120 → closed First-5 Over 6.0 +105 · our way

TOTALanchor Over 10.0 runs -103 → closed -102 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Bullpen arms used two straight daysVeteran rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)Deep into a road trip (game 7+)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Starter recently back from injuryHot day (90°+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6700825194961365,
  "p_shipped": 0.5238164502421954,
  "model_mu": 6.1538996338799254,
  "market_p": 0.5104166666666667,
  "divergence": 0.15966585282946977,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 5.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "94\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2813,
    "contribution": 0.24269,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
    "share": 0.2491,
    "contribution": 0.21496,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1849,
    "contribution": 0.15952,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.1532,
    "contribution": 0.13219,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1315,
    "contribution": 0.11347,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-17T15:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6732436413993523,
  "p_shipped": 0.54268010808648,
  "model_mu": 7.115962525563687,
  "market_p": 0.5283505154639175,
  "divergence": 0.1448931259354348,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 5.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T15:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "93\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2565,
    "contribution": 0.22495,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter recently back from injury",
    "share": 0.2451,
    "contribution": 0.21496,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_il_return",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1819,
    "contribution": 0.15952,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1659,
    "contribution": 0.14554,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.1507,
    "contribution": 0.13219,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5603473777937272,
  "p_shipped": 0.5226896577001608,
  "model_mu": 10.439853781262725,
  "market_p": 0.5064599483204134,
  "divergence": 0.05388742947331382,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 10.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "push",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.269,
    "contribution": 0.24641,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2462,
    "contribution": -0.22547,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "94\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2057,
    "contribution": 0.18839,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1687,
    "contribution": 0.15447,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1104,
    "contribution": -0.10113,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_b2b",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-17T15:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5640958716438136,
  "p_shipped": 0.5189042959751237,
  "model_mu": 11.876105883889819,
  "market_p": 0.493573264781491,
  "divergence": 0.07052260686232259,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 10.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T15:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "push",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.2722,
    "contribution": 0.24641,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.249,
    "contribution": -0.22547,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "93\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.1964,
    "contribution": 0.17784,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1706,
    "contribution": 0.15447,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1117,
    "contribution": -0.10113,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_b2b",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]