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You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

Mon 9/14 · 5:40 PM CDT · Great American Ball Park
THE EDGE
A-grade Over 3.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 13 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Tom Hanahan (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICED
Nick Lodolo 18.5/9.4 · Tarik Skubal 29.9/4.4
MARKET ANCHORPRICED
tonight's line 3.5 vs 5 typical at Great American Ball Park this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICED
home 25.5 · away 20.9
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved -2 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 3.5).
The total line has moved -2 since the grade (anchor 7.5).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
LAD
4
BOT 9 · 3 OUT
B S OUT
updated 2026-09-15T00:56:24Z ·
CIN
1
AT BAT
Tyler Stephenson
season line pending
PITCHING
Evan Phillips
no pitch data yet
STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT
no pitches yet this at-bat
123456789R
LAD0102001004
CIN0000000011
auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game
Los Angeles Dodgers4Cincinnati Reds1FINAL
123456789R
LAD0102001004
CIN0000000011
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
A First-5-innings Over 3.5 · landed 3 · LOST
B Over 7.5 runs · landed 5 · LOST
TOTAL · OVER 7.5 RUNS
B
B cards like this have won 52% over · market 49% · stake 0.5u
FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 3.5
A
A cards like this have won 55% over · market 53% · stake 1u