Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

Mon 9/14 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 3.5

A cards like this have won 55% over · market 53% · stake 1u

TOTAL · OVER 7.5 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% over · market 49% · stake 0.5u

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 13-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games31%

The home team allowing 6.8 runs a game, last 30 — above league average29%

Starting pitchers leans over20%

The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches13%

Park & environment leans over8%

Market: First-5-innings Over 3.5 at -120 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~4.9 runs · divergence 13 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.6% of 414 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.7 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 3.5 -120 → closed -119 · away

TOTALanchor Over 7.5 runs -103 → closed -102 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Heavily used bullpen

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6538963260345273,
  "p_shipped": 0.5123458357119912,
  "model_mu": 4.029131002015514,
  "market_p": 0.5169712793733681,
  "divergence": 0.13692504666115923,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 3.5,
  "anchor_book": "betonlineag",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.2175,
    "contribution": 0.15777,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.1949,
    "contribution": 0.14132,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1852,
    "contribution": 0.13432,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1776,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
    "share": 0.1489,
    "contribution": 0.10799,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.0759,
    "contribution": 0.05505,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-14T21:30:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6631458911367188,
  "p_shipped": 0.5386396407564689,
  "model_mu": 4.862108577598214,
  "market_p": 0.5283505154639175,
  "divergence": 0.1347953756728013,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 3.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T21:30:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3051,
    "contribution": 0.16553,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.2908,
    "contribution": 0.15777,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over",
    "share": 0.199,
    "contribution": 0.10799,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.1261,
    "contribution": 0.06839,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.079,
    "contribution": 0.04285,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5967960824099102,
  "p_shipped": 0.47927512379081666,
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  "market_p": 0.4895287958115184,
  "divergence": 0.1072672865983918,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "betonlineag",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.3521,
    "contribution": 0.24239,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter walks 4.9% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.2218,
    "contribution": 0.15266,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
    "share": 0.2057,
    "contribution": -0.14162,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1169,
    "contribution": 0.08047,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
    "share": 0.1035,
    "contribution": -0.07127,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-14T21:30:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6058975545428936,
  "p_shipped": 0.48201279541932296,
  "model_mu": 9.27749164314325,
  "market_p": 0.493573264781491,
  "divergence": 0.11232428976140263,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T21:30:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.3465,
    "contribution": 0.24239,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter walks 4.9% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.2182,
    "contribution": 0.15266,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
    "share": 0.2024,
    "contribution": -0.14162,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1179,
    "contribution": 0.08248,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_bb30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.115,
    "contribution": 0.08047,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]