Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

Tue 9/15 · 5:40 PM CDT · Great American Ball Park

THE EDGE

B-grade Over 4.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 11 points. A validated close edge is in play here. Umpire Manny Gonzalez (confirmed).

CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL

VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGE

Heat × dry air: +10.1% (n=421) when true / -5.1% (n=193) when false — tonight: FALSE

STARTERS K% / BB%PRICED

Rhett Lowder 17.9/8.6 · Yoshinobu Yamamoto 26.0/5.9

MARKET ANCHORPRICED

tonight's line 4.5 vs 5 typical at Great American Ball Park this season

LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICED

home 26.2 · away 20.9

CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS

Tonight falls in the unfavorable subgroup: -5.1% (n=193) vs 10.1% (n=421) in the favorable branch.

Conditions have changed since the grade (temp 90.9→86.9°F) — the frozen grade and reasoning predate this.

The f5_total line has moved -1 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 4.5).

The total line has moved -4 since the grade (anchor 8.5).

Season rates and workload are in the price. Spotter's edge here: validated interaction.

LAD

BOT 9 · 3 OUT

B S OUT

updated 2026-09-16T01:10:30Z ·

CIN

AT BAT

Eugenio Suárez

season line pending

PITCHING

Tanner Scott

no pitch data yet

STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT

no pitches yet this at-bat

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	4
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game

Los Angeles Dodgers4Cincinnati Reds0FINAL

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	4
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED

B First-5-innings Over 4.5 · landed 3 · LOST

C Over 8.5 runs · landed 4 · LOST

TOTAL · OVER 8.5 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% over · market 51%

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

B cards like this have won 49% over · market 49%