Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

Tue 9/15 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

B cards like this have won 49% over · market 49%

TOTAL · OVER 8.5 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% over · market 51%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 11-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

91°F — heat carries the ball33%

The home team allowing 6.7 runs a game, last 30 — above league average26%

The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games19%

The home starter has thrown 463 pitches over 30 daysagainst the over17%

How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league5%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at -103 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.5 runs · divergence 11 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade B. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade C. · the morning pass leaned B; this pass stands down.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.5 -103 → closed First-5 Over 4.0 -122 · away

TOTALanchor Over 8.5 runs -111 → closed -104 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Hot day (90°+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6217248331655583,
  "p_shipped": 0.48596006928817126,
  "model_mu": 4.892656245172379,
  "market_p": 0.4845360824742268,
  "divergence": 0.13718875069133146,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "91\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2653,
    "contribution": 0.18614,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.2196,
    "contribution": 0.15409,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.2014,
    "contribution": 0.14132,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1655,
    "contribution": 0.11612,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 463 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.1482,
    "contribution": -0.10399,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5965951318118663,
  "p_shipped": 0.4927337854553848,
  "model_mu": 5.463692146292291,
  "market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
  "divergence": 0.10563905946044516,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "91\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3254,
    "contribution": 0.19414,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.2582,
    "contribution": 0.15409,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1929,
    "contribution": 0.11509,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 463 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.1743,
    "contribution": -0.10399,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "How closely this umpire's calls have matched the zone this past year, against the league",
    "share": 0.0492,
    "contribution": 0.02937,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5957486098115365,
  "p_shipped": 0.5071802883561288,
  "model_mu": 8.85701008522092,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": 0.09574860981153654,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.3894,
    "contribution": 0.24193,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.2347,
    "contribution": -0.14579,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1387,
    "contribution": 0.08619,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1295,
    "contribution": 0.08047,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1077,
    "contribution": 0.06688,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.578938994673391,
  "p_shipped": 0.50674147070641,
  "model_mu": 10.104679169997304,
  "market_p": 0.5115681233933163,
  "divergence": 0.0673708712800748,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.3491,
    "contribution": 0.24193,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under",
    "share": 0.2104,
    "contribution": -0.14579,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1244,
    "contribution": 0.08619,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1161,
    "contribution": 0.08047,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.1035,
    "contribution": -0.07175,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_framing_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.0965,
    "contribution": 0.06688,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]