Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

Wed 9/16 · 5:40 PM CDT · Great American Ball Park

THE EDGE

A-grade Over 4 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 12 points. A validated close edge is in play here. Umpire James Jean (confirmed).

CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL

VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGE

Heat × dry air: +10.1% (n=421) when true / -5.1% (n=193) when false — tonight: FALSE

STARTERS K% / BB%PRICED

Andrew Abbott 17.7/10.3 · Blake Snell 33.1/10.4

MARKET ANCHORPRICED

tonight's line 4.0 vs 5 typical at Great American Ball Park this season

LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICED

home 27.0 · away 20.8

CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS

Tonight falls in the unfavorable subgroup: -5.1% (n=193) vs 10.1% (n=421) in the favorable branch.

Conditions have changed since the grade (temp 91.8→82.6°F) — the frozen grade and reasoning predate this.

The f5_total line has moved -0.5 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 4).

Season rates and workload are in the price. Spotter's edge here: validated interaction.

LAD

TOP 9 · 3 OUT

B S OUT

updated 2026-09-17T01:48:27Z ·

CIN

AT BAT

Teoscar Hernández

season line pending

PITCHING

Emilio Pagán

no pitch data yet

STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT

no pitches yet this at-bat

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
CIN	0	0	2	0	1	1	2	0	—	6

auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game

Los Angeles Dodgers2Cincinnati Reds6FINAL

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
CIN	0	0	2	0	1	1	2	0	—	6

HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED

A First-5-innings Over 4.0 · landed 4 · PUSH

A Over 8.5 runs · landed 8 · LOST

TOTAL · OVER 8.5 RUNS

A cards like this have won 54% over · market 48% · stake 1u

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.0

A cards like this have won 55% over · market 52% · stake 1u