Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

Wed 9/16 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · OVER 8.5 RUNS

A cards like this have won 54% over · market 48% · stake 1u

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.0

A cards like this have won 55% over · market 52% · stake 1u

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 15-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home team allowing 6.8 runs a game, last 30 — above league average39%

Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most20%

Backup catcher startingagainst the over17%

The away team's bullpen rested the last three daysagainst the over13%

Schedule spot leans over — mostly the home team12%

Market: Over 8.5 runs at +103 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~10.3 runs · divergence 15 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.4% of 927 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.5 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.0 -115 → closed -114 · away

TOTALanchor Over 8.5 runs +103 → closed Over 8.0 runs -112 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)High-scoring umpireHot day (90°+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 4.5 runs under its closing total — 4 runs against a total of 8.5. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded · this card grades the OVER — the rule points the other way

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
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  "p_shipped": 0.5289803470491443,
  "model_mu": 5.132730219437784,
  "market_p": 0.5142118863049095,
  "divergence": 0.16792492836697614,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "push",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "94\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3595,
    "contribution": 0.25068,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.2359,
    "contribution": 0.1645,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.2027,
    "contribution": 0.14132,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.152,
    "contribution": 0.10597,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire has given hitters the borderline call more than the league this past year",
    "share": 0.0499,
    "contribution": 0.03481,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 5,
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  "market_p": 0.5167958656330749,
  "divergence": 0.12290220486175041,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "push",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "92\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3336,
    "contribution": 0.20054,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.2736,
    "contribution": 0.1645,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2572,
    "contribution": 0.15459,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.0777,
    "contribution": -0.04673,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire has given hitters the borderline call more than the league this past year",
    "share": 0.0579,
    "contribution": 0.03481,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
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  "p_shipped": 0.521882359430528,
  "model_mu": 8.646290036856035,
  "market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
  "divergence": 0.1404884040957679,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "push",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.4135,
    "contribution": 0.2609,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.2149,
    "contribution": 0.13557,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
    "share": 0.138,
    "contribution": -0.08707,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1275,
    "contribution": 0.08047,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.106,
    "contribution": 0.06688,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
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  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6239933300228188,
  "p_shipped": 0.4987982467065308,
  "model_mu": 10.258021881806547,
  "market_p": 0.47814910025706947,
  "divergence": 0.1458442297657493,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 6.8 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.3855,
    "contribution": 0.2609,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.2003,
    "contribution": 0.13557,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1667,
    "contribution": -0.11286,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
    "share": 0.1286,
    "contribution": -0.08707,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1189,
    "contribution": 0.08047,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]