You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
A-grade Over 5.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 15 points. A validated close edge is in play here. Umpire Jacob Metz (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGEHeat × dry air: +10.1% (n=421) when true / -5.1% (n=193) when false — tonight: FALSE
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDBrandon Williamson 14.8/15.6 · Casey Mize 21.5/6.1
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 5.5 vs 5 typical at Great American Ball Park this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 25.8 · away 20.3
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
Tonight falls in the unfavorable subgroup: -5.1% (n=193) vs 10.1% (n=421) in the favorable branch.
The f5_total line has moved +3 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 5.5).
The total line has moved +1 since the grade (anchor 9.5).
Season rates and workload are in the price. Spotter's edge here: validated interaction.
· — OUT
B S OUT
updated — ·
AT BAT
—
season line pending
PITCHING
—
no pitch data yet
STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT
no pitches yet this at-bat
auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game
Live view warms up once the poller sees this game (SPOTTER_LIVE_VIEW).
San Diego Padres3Cincinnati Reds7FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| SD | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
| CIN | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | — | 7 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
A First-5-innings Over 5.5 · landed 7 · WON
C Over 9.5 runs · landed 10 · WON