San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds

Wed 9/2 · 11:40 AM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 5.5

A cards like this have won 55% over · market 47% · stake 1u

TOTAL · OVER 9.5 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% over · market 48%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 15-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

95°F — heat carries the ball29%

The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days22%

Umpire leans over18%

The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games16%

The home team allowing 5.6 runs a game, last 30 — above league average15%

Market: First-5-innings Over 5.5 at +105 (pinnacle, quoted 10:30 AM CDT) · model expects ~6.7 runs · divergence 15 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.6% of 414 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.7 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 5.5 +105 → closed +102 · our way

TOTALanchor Over 9.5 runs +103 → closed -103 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Catcher rest spotVeteran rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Low-scoring umpireStarter recently back from injuryHot day (90°+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.642871056717088,
  "p_shipped": 0.5136729994073305,
  "model_mu": 5.335819477395059,
  "market_p": 0.5116279069767442,
  "divergence": 0.1312431497403438,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "94\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2817,
    "contribution": 0.17976,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
    "share": 0.2254,
    "contribution": 0.14386,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_return_vet",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.1777,
    "contribution": 0.11342,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_k_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1593,
    "contribution": 0.10164,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1559,
    "contribution": 0.09946,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T15:30:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.6235249762752839,
  "p_shipped": 0.4699785060002323,
  "model_mu": 6.67284150261796,
  "market_p": 0.4716494845360826,
  "divergence": 0.15187549173920134,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 5.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T15:30:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "95\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2892,
    "contribution": 0.18595,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "roof_open"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
    "share": 0.2238,
    "contribution": 0.14386,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_return_vet",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.1764,
    "contribution": 0.11342,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof",
     "ump_k_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1558,
    "contribution": 0.10018,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1547,
    "contribution": 0.09946,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5521422655999344,
  "p_shipped": 0.500335352125264,
  "model_mu": 9.665957374936193,
  "market_p": 0.48843187660668386,
  "divergence": 0.06371038899325054,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 9.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.3198,
    "contribution": 0.19964,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "94\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2582,
    "contribution": 0.16123,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2431,
    "contribution": -0.15175,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.1058,
    "contribution": 0.06603,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0732,
    "contribution": 0.0457,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T15:30:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5605979919456511,
  "p_shipped": 0.48680908535250045,
  "model_mu": 10.835983809797172,
  "market_p": 0.47814910025706947,
  "divergence": 0.0824488916885816,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 9.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T15:30:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.3177,
    "contribution": 0.19964,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "95\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.2629,
    "contribution": 0.16518,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "day_game",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2415,
    "contribution": -0.15175,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire leans over",
    "share": 0.1051,
    "contribution": 0.06603,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0727,
    "contribution": 0.0457,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]