You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds
Tue 9/1 · 5:40 PM CDT · Great American Ball Park
THE EDGE
C-grade Over 5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 8 points. A validated close edge is in play here. Umpire Ron Kulpa (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGEK-zone ump × walk-prone starter: +8.8% (n=358) when true / -6.2% (n=446) when false — tonight: TRUE
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDNick Lodolo 17.8/9.2 · Randy Vásquez 15.0/7.1
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 5.0 vs 4.75 typical at Great American Ball Park this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 26.1 · away 20.4
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved -1.5 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 5).
The total line has moved -2.5 since the grade (anchor 9).
Season rates and workload are in the price. Spotter's edge here: validated interaction.
· — OUT
B S OUT
updated — ·
AT BAT
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season line pending
PITCHING
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no pitch data yet
STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT
no pitches yet this at-bat
auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game
Live view warms up once the poller sees this game (SPOTTER_LIVE_VIEW).
San Diego Padres3Cincinnati Reds4FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| SD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
|---|
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | — | 4 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
C First-5-innings Over 5.0 · landed 4 · LOST
no lean Over 9.0 runs · landed 7 · LOST
TOTAL
no lean
model 49% over · market 52%
FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 5.0
C
C cards like this have won 51% over · market 51%