San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds

Tue 9/1 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 5.0

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 51%

TOTAL

no lean

model 49% over · market 52%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 8-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

94°F — heat carries the ball35%

Starting pitchers leans over — mostly the home team23%

The home team allowing 5.7 runs a game, last 30 — above league average16%

The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games14%

High-strikeout umpire zoneagainst the over12%

Market: First-5-innings Over 5.0 at -114 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.7 runs · divergence 8 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade C. · the morning pass leaned A; this pass stands down.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:38 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.

anchor First-5 Over 5.0 -114 → closed -119 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)High-strikeout umpireHot day (90°+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 4 runs under its closing total — 5 runs against a total of 9. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.6566582742357067,
  "p_shipped": 0.5363022739098524,
  "model_mu": 5.350100193744717,
  "market_p": 0.5271317829457364,
  "divergence": 0.1295264912899703,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "95\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.399,
    "contribution": 0.28562,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2318,
    "contribution": 0.16593,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1632,
    "contribution": 0.11682,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1249,
    "contribution": 0.08943,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.0812,
    "contribution": 0.05813,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.596297584835821,
  "p_shipped": 0.5245994649716057,
  "model_mu": 5.693761569321166,
  "market_p": 0.5142118863049095,
  "divergence": 0.08208569853091141,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "94\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3538,
    "contribution": 0.25948,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2262,
    "contribution": 0.16593,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.1593,
    "contribution": 0.11682,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1422,
    "contribution": 0.10427,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "High-strikeout umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1185,
    "contribution": -0.08692,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd",
     "ump_width_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5667677067400982,
  "p_shipped": 0.4755884614624634,
  "model_mu": 9.619794633594205,
  "market_p": 0.4910025706940874,
  "divergence": 0.07576513604601082,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 9.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.4321,
    "contribution": 0.21966,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1937,
    "contribution": 0.09849,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "95\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.1763,
    "contribution": 0.08962,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1128,
    "contribution": -0.05735,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0851,
    "contribution": 0.04325,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.5563550627678213,
  "p_shipped": 0.4891324370504295,
  "model_mu": 10.35033332934461,
  "market_p": 0.517948717948718,
  "divergence": 0.03840634481910332,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.4306,
    "contribution": 0.21966,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1931,
    "contribution": 0.09849,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "94\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.146,
    "contribution": 0.07448,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1455,
    "contribution": -0.07421,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.0848,
    "contribution": 0.04325,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]