You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
B-grade Over 4 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 11 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Nate Tomlinson (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDShota Imanaga 23.6/5.6 · JR Ritchie 20.0/14.4
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.0 vs 4.5 typical at Wrigley Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 18.1 · away 22.2
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved -1.5 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 4).
The total line has moved +5 since the grade (anchor 7.5).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Atlanta Braves4Chicago Cubs8FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
|---|
| CHC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | — | 8 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
B First-5-innings Over 4.0 · landed 6 · WON
no lean Over 7.5 runs · landed 12 · WON