Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs

Wed 9/16 · 6:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.0

B cards like this have won 49% over · market 50%

TOTAL

no lean

model 48% over · market 49%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 11-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team43%

Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year — fewer called strikes24%

The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games18%

Wind blowing in, ~8 mph netagainst the over10%

The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches6%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at -108 (pinnacle, quoted 5:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~4.9 runs · divergence 11 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

anchor First-5 Over 4.0 -108 → closed -108 · unchanged

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Getaway day (day game, then travel)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6111742028896215,
  "p_shipped": 0.510402398714663,
  "model_mu": 4.237401757159222,
  "market_p": 0.5038961038961038,
  "divergence": 0.1072780989935177,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.4229,
    "contribution": 0.20178,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2377,
    "contribution": 0.11341,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.18,
    "contribution": 0.08591,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~6 mph net",
    "share": 0.0989,
    "contribution": -0.04718,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.0605,
    "contribution": 0.02888,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T22:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.6109017411210531,
  "p_shipped": 0.5062933112634175,
  "model_mu": 4.932153467096233,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": 0.11090174112105311,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T22:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.4252,
    "contribution": 0.20178,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_elo",
     "a_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.239,
    "contribution": 0.11341,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.177,
    "contribution": 0.08401,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~8 mph net",
    "share": 0.0978,
    "contribution": -0.04642,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.0609,
    "contribution": 0.02888,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5183146246097927,
  "p_shipped": 0.4927537227360289,
  "model_mu": 7.463141342756317,
  "market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
  "divergence": 0.027358552258371582,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3135,
    "contribution": 0.14781,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~6 mph net",
    "share": 0.2063,
    "contribution": -0.09728,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
    "share": 0.1831,
    "contribution": -0.08635,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.1628,
    "contribution": -0.07674,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1343,
    "contribution": 0.06335,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T22:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5213091087195009,
  "p_shipped": 0.4846342581768822,
  "model_mu": 8.455600302915231,
  "market_p": 0.4896907216494846,
  "divergence": 0.031618387070016296,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T22:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.3172,
    "contribution": 0.14781,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~8 mph net",
    "share": 0.197,
    "contribution": -0.09179,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "wind_out_comp",
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days",
    "share": 0.1853,
    "contribution": -0.08635,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.1647,
    "contribution": -0.07674,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.1359,
    "contribution": 0.06335,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]