You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
B-grade Over 4.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 9 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Quinn Wolcott (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDKevin Gausman 24.2/6.5 · Martín Pérez 16.9/10.9
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.5 vs 4.5 typical at Wrigley Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 18.8 · away 22.6
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved -2 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 4.5).
The total line has moved +1 since the grade (anchor 8.5).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Atlanta Braves6Chicago Cubs3FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
|---|
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
B First-5-innings Over 4.5 · landed 3 · LOST
no lean Over 8.5 runs · landed 9 · WON