Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.6366263575639297,
"p_shipped": 0.5333046780940909,
"model_mu": 5.256439717600622,
"market_p": 0.5193798449612403,
"divergence": 0.11724651260268937,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.4047,
"contribution": 0.22617,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Game-time temperature 78\u00b0F",
"share": 0.2608,
"contribution": 0.14577,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"temp_out",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 17.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1703,
"contribution": 0.0952,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0972,
"contribution": 0.0543,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.067,
"contribution": 0.03747,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T22:30:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.6060952109275892,
"p_shipped": 0.5332716745242121,
"model_mu": 5.815406290989551,
"market_p": 0.520618556701031,
"divergence": 0.08547665422655826,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T22:30:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.418,
"contribution": 0.22617,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 17.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.176,
"contribution": 0.0952,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1565,
"contribution": 0.08464,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.1374,
"contribution": 0.07431,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1122,
"contribution": -0.06069,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.58104334759584,
"p_shipped": 0.48376625759192354,
"model_mu": 8.890232390275058,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": 0.08104334759583998,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.4788,
"contribution": 0.17399,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1558,
"contribution": 0.05663,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1484,
"contribution": 0.05393,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team gives up stolen bases",
"share": 0.1228,
"contribution": 0.04464,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"a_wp_pb30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.0941,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T22:30:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5479706212946834,
"p_shipped": 0.47487273540381936,
"model_mu": 9.938582478813649,
"market_p": 0.4974226804123712,
"divergence": 0.05054794088231224,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T22:30:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.4515,
"contribution": 0.17399,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1728,
"contribution": -0.06658,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_framing_miss",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.147,
"contribution": 0.05663,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.14,
"contribution": 0.05393,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.0888,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
}
]