You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
C-grade Over 4 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 7 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Ryan Wills (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDMatthew Boyd 19.1/7.3 · Bubba Chandler 20.6/11.6
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.0 vs 4.5 typical at Wrigley Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 19.4 · away 23.8
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved -1.5 since the grade against the graded side (anchor 4).
The total line has moved +0.5 since the grade (anchor 7).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Pittsburgh Pirates4Chicago Cubs3FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| PIT | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
C First-5-innings Over 4.0 · landed 3 · LOST
no lean Over 7.0 runs · landed 7 · PUSH