Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5984071174458159,
"p_shipped": 0.5392566909344748,
"model_mu": 4.046354910942715,
"market_p": 0.5347043701799487,
"divergence": 0.06370274726586722,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 3.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over",
"share": 0.3424,
"contribution": 0.18489,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~9 mph net",
"share": 0.239,
"contribution": -0.12905,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.141,
"contribution": 0.07616,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1251,
"contribution": 0.06753,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1047,
"contribution": 0.05656,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 474 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.0478,
"contribution": -0.02582,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5416689981426941,
"p_shipped": 0.47547379991611777,
"model_mu": 4.812928735512524,
"market_p": 0.4742268041237113,
"divergence": 0.06744219401898277,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over",
"share": 0.3466,
"contribution": 0.18489,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~8 mph net",
"share": 0.2349,
"contribution": -0.12531,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.151,
"contribution": -0.08054,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
"share": 0.1428,
"contribution": 0.07616,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1247,
"contribution": 0.0665,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5482049310540831,
"p_shipped": 0.5083043659477299,
"model_mu": 6.923935800501261,
"market_p": 0.4910025706940874,
"divergence": 0.05720236035999565,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2954,
"contribution": 0.16981,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2111,
"contribution": -0.12135,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
"share": 0.1829,
"contribution": 0.10511,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1071,
"contribution": 0.06158,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1023,
"contribution": 0.05881,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_wp_pb30",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1011,
"contribution": -0.0581,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5114250222693989,
"p_shipped": 0.5013273173043302,
"model_mu": 7.800055465942425,
"market_p": 0.5051546391752577,
"divergence": 0.006270383094141185,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T17:00:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.3055,
"contribution": 0.16981,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2183,
"contribution": -0.12135,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
"share": 0.1891,
"contribution": 0.10511,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.1763,
"contribution": -0.09802,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"h_framing_miss",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
"share": 0.1108,
"contribution": 0.06158,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_edge_cs_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
}
]
}
]