You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
no lean-grade Under 4.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 2 points. A validated close edge is in play here. Umpire Jim Wolf (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGEK-zone ump × walk-prone starter: +8.8% (n=358) when true / -6.2% (n=446) when false — tonight: FALSE
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDRanger Suarez 22.5/7.4 · Randy Dobnak 17.2/8.4
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.5 vs 4.5 typical at Fenway Park this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 20.4 · away 19.4
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
Tonight falls in the unfavorable subgroup: -6.2% (n=446) vs 8.8% (n=358) in the favorable branch.
The f5_total line has moved -3 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 4.5).
The total line has moved -2 since the grade (anchor 8.5).
Season rates and workload are in the price. Spotter's edge here: validated interaction.
· — OUT
B S OUT
updated — ·
AT BAT
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season line pending
PITCHING
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no pitch data yet
STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT
no pitches yet this at-bat
auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game
Live view warms up once the poller sees this game (SPOTTER_LIVE_VIEW).
Kansas City Royals1Boston Red Sox5FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | 5 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Under 4.5 · landed 1 · WON
no lean Over 8.5 runs · landed 6 · LOST