Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.46831822828042746,
"p_shipped": 0.48098264425613924,
"model_mu": 4.156243473982389,
"market_p": 0.4780361757105944,
"divergence": -0.009717947430166962,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~9 mph net",
"share": 0.3677,
"contribution": -0.14003,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 18.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2316,
"contribution": 0.08819,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_tto_decay",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.2273,
"contribution": -0.08654,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0833,
"contribution": 0.03172,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0528,
"contribution": 0.02012,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0373,
"contribution": -0.01418,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_elo",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4815965179622076,
"p_shipped": 0.5055217569365794,
"model_mu": 4.8949780731375325,
"market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
"divergence": -0.019695471701875134,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Wind blowing in, ~8 mph net",
"share": 0.3008,
"contribution": -0.11626,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"wind_out_comp",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter strikes out 18.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.2282,
"contribution": 0.08819,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_tto_decay",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.2239,
"contribution": -0.08654,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team has the lefty-righty edge in the lineup",
"share": 0.1283,
"contribution": 0.0496,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_platoon_share",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.0821,
"contribution": 0.03172,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0367,
"contribution": -0.01418,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_elo",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.509232838715501,
"p_shipped": 0.49326918138052744,
"model_mu": 8.100757921302906,
"market_p": 0.5038560411311055,
"divergence": 0.005376797584395465,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: day game after a night game for the away team",
"share": 0.2533,
"contribution": -0.11758,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.1791,
"contribution": 0.08313,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
"share": 0.1603,
"contribution": -0.07441,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1568,
"contribution": 0.07279,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"a_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1272,
"contribution": 0.05903,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1232,
"contribution": 0.05716,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"a_off_bb30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5180355748033537,
"p_shipped": 0.4928558299781202,
"model_mu": 9.284346402449806,
"market_p": 0.5154639175257731,
"divergence": 0.0025716572775805746,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: day game after a night game for the away team",
"share": 0.2499,
"contribution": -0.11758,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_dan"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter an established starter (10+ starts)",
"share": 0.1767,
"contribution": 0.08313,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1658,
"contribution": 0.07802,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.1547,
"contribution": 0.07279,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"a_cs30",
"a_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans under",
"share": 0.1275,
"contribution": -0.06002,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1255,
"contribution": 0.05903,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_err30",
"a_unearned30",
"h_err30"
]
}
]
}
]