You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
C-grade Under 5.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 6 points. The grade is the full-picture model's read; no legacy code fired. Umpire Charlie Ramos (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDGrant Holmes 18.6/10.0 · Andrew Painter 19.8/8.0
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 5.5 vs 4.5 typical at Truist Park this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 22.0 · away 18.6
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
The f5_total line has moved -1 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 5.5).
The total line has moved +4 since the grade (anchor 9.5).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Philadelphia Phillies9Atlanta Braves4FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| PHI | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
|---|
| ATL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
C First-5-innings Under 5.5 · landed 3 · WON
no lean Over 9.5 runs · landed 13 · WON