Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

Sun 9/13 · 12:35 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 5.5

C cards like this have won 51% under · market 51%

TOTAL

no lean

model 47% over · market 48%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Park & environment leans overagainst the under30%

The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games28%

The away starter mixed his pitches differently than usual last start14%

Behind the plate leans under — mostly the home team14%

Walk-prone umpire zoneagainst the under14%

Market: First-5-innings Under 5.5 at -110 (pinnacle, quoted 11:30 AM CDT) · model expects ~5.5 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.

anchor First-5 Under 5.5 -110 → closed -110 · unchanged

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Heavily used bullpenCatcher rest spotVeteran rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4630187581001082,
  "p_shipped": 0.5039286126273186,
  "model_mu": 4.5908085942014,
  "market_p": 0.5090439276485788,
  "divergence": -0.04602516954847058,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.3375,
    "contribution": 0.12639,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2852,
    "contribution": -0.10679,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter mixed his pitches differently than usual last start",
    "share": 0.1454,
    "contribution": -0.05444,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1402,
    "contribution": 0.05251,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0918,
    "contribution": -0.03436,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.43164820188017156,
  "p_shipped": 0.4875741048833474,
  "model_mu": 5.481569115921653,
  "market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
  "divergence": -0.06189184979941503,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 5.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
    "share": 0.3049,
    "contribution": 0.1182,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "roof_open",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2804,
    "contribution": -0.10869,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter mixed his pitches differently than usual last start",
    "share": 0.1404,
    "contribution": -0.05444,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_velo_dev",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1389,
    "contribution": -0.05384,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cs30",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1354,
    "contribution": 0.05251,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5273287155278075,
  "p_shipped": 0.5028649160941525,
  "model_mu": 8.66022351889544,
  "market_p": 0.5115681233933163,
  "divergence": 0.015760592134491214,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.255,
    "contribution": 0.1876,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "temp_out",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2404,
    "contribution": -0.17686,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.2246,
    "contribution": 0.16528,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1835,
    "contribution": 0.13506,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0965,
    "contribution": -0.07102,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5097512447739189,
  "p_shipped": 0.47376120234996577,
  "model_mu": 10.135517706512603,
  "market_p": 0.48071979434447304,
  "divergence": 0.029031450429445826,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 9.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.2528,
    "contribution": 0.18324,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "temp_out",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.244,
    "contribution": -0.17686,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.228,
    "contribution": 0.16528,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_b2b",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Walk-prone umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1863,
    "contribution": 0.13506,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_rpg_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.089,
    "contribution": -0.06451,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]