Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Wed 9/16 · 8:40 PM CDT · Chase Field

THE EDGE

C-grade Under 4.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 7 points. A validated close edge is in play here. Umpire Erich Bacchus (confirmed).

CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL

VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGE

Heat × dry air: +10.1% (n=421) when true / -5.1% (n=193) when false — tonight: TRUE

STARTERS K% / BB%PRICED

Michael Soroka 23.0/6.1 · Janson Junk 15.8/6.4

MARKET ANCHORPRICED

tonight's line 4.5 vs 5 typical at Chase Field this season

LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICED

home 19.6 · away 23.2

CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS

Retractable roof — reported closed before first pitch, entered by hand, not measured.

Lineups not posted at grade time.

The f5_total line has moved -1 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 4.5).

The total line has moved -4 since the grade (anchor 8.5).

Season rates and workload are in the price. Spotter's edge here: validated interaction.

MIA

BOT 11 · 3 OUT

B S OUT

updated 2026-09-16T05:15:25Z ·

AT BAT

Gabriel Moreno

season line pending

PITCHING

Josh Ekness

no pitch data yet

STRIKE ZONE · THIS AT-BAT

no pitches yet this at-bat

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
MIA	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	4
AZ	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2

auto-refreshes while live · display only — grades never change in-game

Miami Marlins4Arizona Diamondbacks2FINAL

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
MIA	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	4
AZ	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2

HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED

C First-5-innings Under 4.5 · landed 2 · WON

C Under 8.5 runs · landed 6 · WON

TOTAL · UNDER 8.5 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% under · market 48%

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.5

C cards like this have won 51% under · market 47%