Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Wed 9/16 · 8:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 8.5 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% under · market 48%

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.5

C cards like this have won 51% under · market 47%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 8-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

16–30 day gap between starts for the home starter38%

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games21%

The away team allowing 5.2 runs a game, last 30 — above league average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under15%

Schedule spot leans over — mostly the home teamagainst the under15%

Bullpen leans overagainst the under12%

Market: Under 8.5 runs at +104 (pinnacle, quoted 7:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~7.4 runs · divergence 8 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade C. · the morning pass leaned B; this pass stands down.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Under 4.5 +106 → closed First-5 Under 5.0 -122 · away

TOTALanchor Under 8.5 runs +104 → closed +105 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Heavily used bullpenStarter recently back from injuryHot day (90°+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. Lineups not posted at grade time.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
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  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
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  "p_shipped": 0.5030172422800079,
  "model_mu": 3.439735012113521,
  "market_p": 0.5193798449612403,
  "divergence": -0.0660290868043324,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
    "share": 0.2171,
    "contribution": 0.06177,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft",
     "wx_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.195,
    "contribution": -0.05547,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_gap_med",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.1885,
    "contribution": -0.05364,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1877,
    "contribution": -0.05339,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1578,
    "contribution": -0.0449,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Both teams below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0539,
    "contribution": -0.01533,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T00:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4565873727642253,
  "p_shipped": 0.5152265175460574,
  "model_mu": 4.012546069134739,
  "market_p": 0.5309278350515463,
  "divergence": -0.074340462287321,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T00:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
    "share": 0.2554,
    "contribution": 0.07724,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1834,
    "contribution": -0.05547,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_gap_med",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.1774,
    "contribution": -0.05364,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1766,
    "contribution": -0.05339,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1485,
    "contribution": -0.0449,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Both teams below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0587,
    "contribution": -0.01775,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4238414200288142,
  "p_shipped": 0.502634662327898,
  "model_mu": 6.760025925920816,
  "market_p": 0.5128865979381443,
  "divergence": -0.08904517790933009,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "16\u201330 day gap between starts for the home starter",
    "share": 0.3837,
    "contribution": -0.23976,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_gap_med",
     "a_sp_inn1_whiff",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1953,
    "contribution": -0.12205,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.1563,
    "contribution": -0.09768,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1477,
    "contribution": 0.09228,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
    "share": 0.1171,
    "contribution": 0.07315,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T00:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4419566124888069,
  "p_shipped": 0.5063780409684905,
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  "market_p": 0.5244215938303342,
  "divergence": -0.08246498134152724,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T00:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "16\u201330 day gap between starts for the home starter",
    "share": 0.379,
    "contribution": -0.23976,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_gap_med",
     "a_sp_inn1_whiff",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2051,
    "contribution": -0.12976,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.1544,
    "contribution": -0.09768,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1459,
    "contribution": 0.09228,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans over",
    "share": 0.1156,
    "contribution": 0.07315,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]