You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
C-grade Under 9 (full-game total) — model vs market gap 7 points. The fired signals' value is timing — the close absorbs them. Umpire Chris Segal (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — TOTAL
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDMerrill Kelly 15.5/10.2 · Ryan Gusto 18.1/8.1
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 9.0 vs 9 typical at Chase Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 20.5 · away 23.0
BULLPEN AVAILABILITY (NOT QUALITY)PRICEDhome 205p/3d (b2b 3) · away 283p/3d (b2b 3) · recent arms: Brandyn Garcia, Cade Gibson, Calvin Faucher, Dax Fulton
CONTEXT CHIPS — FIRST 5
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDMerrill Kelly 15.5/10.2 · Ryan Gusto 18.1/8.1
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 5.0 vs 5 typical at Chase Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 20.5 · away 23.0
F5 excludes the bullpen — that's why this market isolates the starters.
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
Retractable roof — reported closed before first pitch, entered by hand, not measured.
The f5_total line has moved +0.5 since the grade (anchor 5).
The total line has moved -0.5 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 9).
Everything on this card is in the price. The grade is the model's read of how the priced pieces combine.
Miami Marlins4Arizona Diamondbacks3FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| MIA | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
|---|
| AZ | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Under 5.0 · landed 6 · LOST
C Under 9.0 runs · landed 7 · WON