Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.44352924272202693,
"p_shipped": 0.47191869053723384,
"model_mu": 4.027165426306015,
"market_p": 0.4896373056994819,
"divergence": -0.046108062977454956,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.2728,
"contribution": -0.08186,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.2054,
"contribution": 0.06164,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wx_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1809,
"contribution": -0.05427,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 16.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1224,
"contribution": 0.03673,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1217,
"contribution": -0.03651,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Both teams below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0968,
"contribution": -0.02904,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T00:30:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.45076217577080935,
"p_shipped": 0.4807077867823707,
"model_mu": 5.086562461574857,
"market_p": 0.4935400516795866,
"divergence": -0.04277787590877724,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T00:30:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.2713,
"contribution": -0.08186,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.2556,
"contribution": 0.07712,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1799,
"contribution": -0.05427,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 16.3% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1217,
"contribution": 0.03673,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.121,
"contribution": -0.03651,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Both teams below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0505,
"contribution": -0.01525,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.38685372702987963,
"p_shipped": 0.4880922927500671,
"model_mu": 7.250149216393318,
"market_p": 0.47557840616966585,
"divergence": -0.08872467913978621,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3258,
"contribution": -0.12074,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2044,
"contribution": -0.07575,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1551,
"contribution": -0.0575,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1318,
"contribution": -0.04884,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"wind_miss",
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1032,
"contribution": -0.03826,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0797,
"contribution": -0.02956,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T00:30:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.40966204263535577,
"p_shipped": 0.486256526728833,
"model_mu": 8.739367473701131,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": -0.07362844579652095,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T00:30:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.344,
"contribution": -0.10706,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4.9 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.2434,
"contribution": -0.07575,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1848,
"contribution": -0.0575,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1229,
"contribution": -0.03826,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.105,
"contribution": 0.03267,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
}
]
}
]