You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE EDGE
no lean-grade Over 4.5 (first-5 total) — model vs market gap 3 points. A validated close edge is in play here. Umpire Austin Jones (confirmed).
CONTEXT CHIPS — F5_TOTAL
VALIDATED INTERACTIONEDGEK-zone ump × walk-prone starter: +8.8% (n=358) when true / -6.2% (n=446) when false — tonight: TRUE
STARTERS K% / BB%PRICEDunder ~100 BF this seasonCorbin Burnes 15.4/15.4 · Sandy Alcantara 17.2/6.6
MARKET ANCHORPRICEDtonight's line 4.5 vs 5 typical at Chase Field this season
LINEUP K% (LAST 30)PRICEDhome 19.5 · away 22.5
CAUTIONS — WHAT CUTS AGAINST THIS
Retractable roof — reported closed before first pitch, entered by hand, not measured.
The f5_total line has moved +4 since the grade toward the graded side (anchor 4.5).
The total line has moved +5 since the grade (anchor 8.5).
Season rates and workload are in the price. Spotter's edge here: validated interaction.
Miami Marlins7Arizona Diamondbacks8FINAL
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|
| MIA | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
|---|
| AZ | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
|---|
HOW THE GRADED MARKETS LANDED
no lean First-5-innings Over 4.5 · landed 9 · WON
no lean Over 8.5 runs · landed 15 · WON