Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5307201265642346,
"p_shipped": 0.5144985005066287,
"model_mu": 3.364254656807922,
"market_p": 0.5221932114882506,
"divergence": 0.00852691507598402,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 57 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.4361,
"contribution": 0.24382,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2304,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.1102,
"contribution": 0.06163,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wx_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1069,
"contribution": -0.05979,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0821,
"contribution": -0.04589,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0342,
"contribution": -0.01914,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T00:30:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5102734908070167,
"p_shipped": 0.48099995759790126,
"model_mu": 4.472060260225732,
"market_p": 0.4780361757105944,
"divergence": 0.03223731509642225,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T00:30:18Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 57 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.4244,
"contribution": 0.24382,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.2194,
"contribution": -0.12606,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.1342,
"contribution": 0.0771,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1041,
"contribution": -0.05979,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.0799,
"contribution": -0.04589,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0381,
"contribution": -0.02191,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4939900466600374,
"p_shipped": 0.4937106748332972,
"model_mu": 7.438208539502768,
"market_p": 0.4947643979057591,
"divergence": -0.0007743512457217272,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter exits early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
"share": 0.249,
"contribution": 0.13687,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitch_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.212,
"contribution": -0.11654,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1706,
"contribution": -0.09377,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1679,
"contribution": 0.09228,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.108,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0926,
"contribution": 0.0509,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T00:30:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5333725316362835,
"p_shipped": 0.4803852954795988,
"model_mu": 9.4248288106403,
"market_p": 0.4832904884318767,
"divergence": 0.05008204320440679,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T00:30:18Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter exits early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
"share": 0.2819,
"contribution": 0.13687,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitch_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.23,
"contribution": -0.11167,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1931,
"contribution": -0.09377,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1901,
"contribution": 0.09228,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1048,
"contribution": 0.0509,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
}
]