Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4513451735424619,
"p_shipped": 0.4981298522603381,
"model_mu": 4.373273251158972,
"market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
"divergence": -0.04994681612162083,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3721,
"contribution": -0.20077,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 484 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.1995,
"contribution": -0.10764,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_tto_decay",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.152,
"contribution": 0.08203,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"temp_out",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1454,
"contribution": 0.07847,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1311,
"contribution": 0.07073,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48008075265014705,
"p_shipped": 0.5255817312564641,
"model_mu": 5.250100956717857,
"market_p": 0.5231958762886597,
"divergence": -0.043115123638512665,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.4328,
"contribution": -0.18872,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.214,
"contribution": 0.09328,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_framing_miss",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.18,
"contribution": 0.07847,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.15,
"contribution": 0.06541,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"roof_open",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0232,
"contribution": -0.01012,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_whiff"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.47480497868309146,
"p_shipped": 0.493537824608929,
"model_mu": 8.187230992184187,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": -0.04190453288503193,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3876,
"contribution": -0.29647,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.3278,
"contribution": 0.25071,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1051,
"contribution": 0.08038,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked extra innings yesterday",
"share": 0.0924,
"contribution": -0.07069,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_yday_extras",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 9.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.0872,
"contribution": -0.06668,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5100980713012656,
"p_shipped": 0.4741355694669716,
"model_mu": 9.941007205002755,
"market_p": 0.493573264781491,
"divergence": 0.016524806519774615,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-13T16:30:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3722,
"contribution": -0.28607,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.3262,
"contribution": 0.25071,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter exits early \u2014 bullpen exposure",
"share": 0.1228,
"contribution": 0.0944,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_prev_pitches"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked extra innings yesterday",
"share": 0.092,
"contribution": -0.07069,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_yday_extras",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.0867,
"contribution": 0.06663,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof"
]
}
]
}
]