Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4262707226534856,
"p_shipped": 0.4754575232555135,
"model_mu": 3.282973485934608,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": -0.07372927734651441,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.3103,
"contribution": -0.24202,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_il_return",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2607,
"contribution": -0.20333,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1651,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0998,
"contribution": 0.07784,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0945,
"contribution": 0.0737,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.0696,
"contribution": 0.05432,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"a_cat_framing_prior"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T21:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4316854120335829,
"p_shipped": 0.49220506554680576,
"model_mu": 3.9164537389651413,
"market_p": 0.5064599483204134,
"divergence": -0.0747745362868305,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T21:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.3943,
"contribution": -0.24202,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_il_return",
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3103,
"contribution": -0.19041,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_hr30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1268,
"contribution": 0.07784,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Park & environment leans over",
"share": 0.0911,
"contribution": 0.05593,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
"share": 0.0701,
"contribution": -0.04304,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"a_framing_miss",
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_backup_catcher"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans under",
"share": 0.0073,
"contribution": -0.00448,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.41927219464136173,
"p_shipped": 0.500942646833905,
"model_mu": 6.579915676376916,
"market_p": 0.5089974293059126,
"divergence": -0.0897252346645509,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3398,
"contribution": -0.305,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2471,
"contribution": 0.2218,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 27.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1641,
"contribution": -0.14729,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
"share": 0.1373,
"contribution": -0.12322,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over",
"share": 0.1118,
"contribution": 0.1004,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_tz2",
"a_trip7",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T21:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.42251160856205044,
"p_shipped": 0.495100905543541,
"model_mu": 7.4225936685866865,
"market_p": 0.5128865979381443,
"divergence": -0.09037498937609384,
"band": "B",
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T21:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.3308,
"contribution": -0.29296,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.6 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2504,
"contribution": 0.2218,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 27.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.1663,
"contribution": -0.14729,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_velo_dev"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
"share": 0.1391,
"contribution": -0.12322,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans over",
"share": 0.1134,
"contribution": 0.1004,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_tz2",
"a_trip7",
"h_miles7d_k"
]
}
]
}
]