Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals

Sat 9/12 · 3:05 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 8.0 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% under · market 48% · stake 0.5u

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.5

C cards like this have won 51% under · market 53%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 10-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games33%

Both starters walk 10.4% of batters, adjusted — a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under27%

The away team allowing 3.5 runs a game, last 30 — below league average. Priced in, and it went too faragainst the under27%

The home team's bullpen rested the last three days10%

Day gameagainst the under3%

Market: Under 8.0 runs at +102 (pinnacle, quoted 2:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~8.0 runs · divergence 10 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 52.2% of 1,393 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.2 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 0.5u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade B. · new at this pass — the morning pass had no lean.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Under 4.5 -120 → closed -118 · away

TOTALanchor Under 8.0 runs +102 → closed Under 8.5 runs -101 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Day game after a night gameDeep into a road trip (game 7+)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4273959457583734,
  "p_shipped": 0.45795659705192887,
  "model_mu": 3.9569007610127245,
  "market_p": 0.4652956298200514,
  "divergence": -0.037899684061677985,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3188,
    "contribution": -0.1845,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter walks 10.9% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2509,
    "contribution": -0.14521,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.1965,
    "contribution": -0.11368,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1217,
    "contribution": 0.07043,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.1121,
    "contribution": 0.06484,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.421922598262026,
  "p_shipped": 0.46048451876069457,
  "model_mu": 4.506714070747673,
  "market_p": 0.4716494845360826,
  "divergence": -0.04972688627405658,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2979,
    "contribution": -0.16725,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter walks 10.9% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2587,
    "contribution": -0.14521,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_tto_decay",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
    "share": 0.2025,
    "contribution": -0.11368,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1254,
    "contribution": 0.07043,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.1155,
    "contribution": 0.06484,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.42126648927297855,
  "p_shipped": 0.482491580339191,
  "model_mu": 7.062115460464353,
  "market_p": 0.4961439588688946,
  "divergence": -0.07487746959591607,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T13:15:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3319,
    "contribution": -0.29471,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Both starters walk 10.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2552,
    "contribution": -0.22665,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.2526,
    "contribution": 0.22428,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The home team's bullpen rested the last three days",
    "share": 0.0991,
    "contribution": -0.08803,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.0612,
    "contribution": 0.05437,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "temp_out",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4194833514630054,
  "p_shipped": 0.4889776492521936,
  "model_mu": 7.9548888840967065,
  "market_p": 0.5192802056555269,
  "divergence": -0.09979685419252149,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T19:00:36Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.3266,
    "contribution": -0.27445,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Both starters walk 10.4% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.2698,
    "contribution": -0.22665,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 3.5 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.2669,
    "contribution": 0.22428,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The home team's bullpen rested the last three days",
    "share": 0.1048,
    "contribution": -0.08803,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.0319,
    "contribution": 0.02679,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "temp_out"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]