Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5133855338447684,
"p_shipped": 0.47410144673229276,
"model_mu": 4.9890524943060495,
"market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
"divergence": 0.027597420149677976,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.3134,
"contribution": 0.13391,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire tendency history \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2483,
"contribution": -0.1061,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.209,
"contribution": 0.08928,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "91\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1258,
"contribution": 0.05374,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.056,
"contribution": -0.02391,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0475,
"contribution": 0.02028,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T16:00:47Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.5086642464711087,
"p_shipped": 0.48775305312160216,
"model_mu": 5.887187009754041,
"market_p": 0.4987080103359174,
"divergence": 0.009956236135191365,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T16:00:47Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.3525,
"contribution": 0.13391,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire tendency history \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2793,
"contribution": -0.1061,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_width_asof",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "92\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1589,
"contribution": 0.06036,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"roof_open"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1304,
"contribution": 0.04954,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0534,
"contribution": 0.02028,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0255,
"contribution": -0.00969,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_off_bb30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.4855580813688844,
"p_shipped": 0.498657172066911,
"model_mu": 8.208456341761739,
"market_p": 0.517948717948718,
"divergence": -0.0323906365798336,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.3268,
"contribution": -0.19768,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.2991,
"contribution": 0.18088,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.143,
"contribution": -0.08646,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "91\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1171,
"contribution": 0.07084,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.114,
"contribution": -0.06897,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-02T16:00:47Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.4780004534985456,
"p_shipped": 0.47517384793991174,
"model_mu": 9.650621312001746,
"market_p": 0.4910025706940874,
"divergence": -0.01300211719554184,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 9.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T16:00:47Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.3314,
"contribution": -0.19768,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.3033,
"contribution": 0.18088,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "92\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1277,
"contribution": 0.07618,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.122,
"contribution": -0.07278,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1156,
"contribution": -0.06897,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b",
"a_bp_pitches_3d"
]
}
]
}
]