Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.4456757088167725,
"p_shipped": 0.5019451832759596,
"model_mu": 5.175948980312865,
"market_p": 0.518041237113402,
"divergence": -0.07236552829662951,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 5.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:15:03Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire tendency history \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2642,
"contribution": -0.25203,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "94\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.2572,
"contribution": 0.24533,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 467 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.2265,
"contribution": -0.21605,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_tto_decay",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1471,
"contribution": 0.14029,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.0928,
"contribution": 0.0885,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0123,
"contribution": -0.01176,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 16,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.48632493584897346,
"p_shipped": 0.49758336025042194,
"model_mu": 5.924820911888837,
"market_p": 0.49095607235142114,
"divergence": -0.004631136502447675,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "93\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.3528,
"contribution": 0.23682,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"roof_open",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 467 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.3218,
"contribution": -0.21605,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_tto_decay",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.209,
"contribution": 0.14029,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Hitter-friendly umpire zone",
"share": 0.072,
"contribution": 0.0483,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_k_dev_sd",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_rpg_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
"share": 0.0444,
"contribution": -0.02984,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_backup_catcher",
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.48905168462703585,
"p_shipped": 0.46957975816713693,
"model_mu": 9.171727980777518,
"market_p": 0.4896907216494846,
"divergence": -0.0006390370224487185,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 10.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T13:38:13Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.416,
"contribution": 0.19962,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1553,
"contribution": -0.07449,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1237,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1089,
"contribution": -0.05223,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "94\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1017,
"contribution": 0.04881,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 10.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.0944,
"contribution": -0.04529,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_pitches_30d"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 12,
"feature_version": 2,
"model_p": 0.4850401735521815,
"p_shipped": 0.45181503328859074,
"model_mu": 10.522521689036061,
"market_p": 0.4845360824742268,
"divergence": 0.0005040910779546826,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 10.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-01T21:30:25Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 3.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.48,
"contribution": 0.19962,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1819,
"contribution": -0.07567,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_off_bb30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1256,
"contribution": -0.05223,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"a_bp_b2b",
"h_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 10.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1089,
"contribution": -0.04529,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"a_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "93\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
"share": 0.1036,
"contribution": 0.04309,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"temp_out",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
}
]
}
]