Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.42931549931931784,
"p_shipped": 0.48536476087660213,
"model_mu": 3.336396710560197,
"market_p": 0.5104712041884817,
"divergence": -0.08115570486916385,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter mixed his pitches differently than usual last start",
"share": 0.3405,
"contribution": -0.14388,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3048,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Both catchers gain extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.1835,
"contribution": -0.07753,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0923,
"contribution": -0.03899,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0549,
"contribution": 0.02318,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wx_miss",
"wind_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.0241,
"contribution": 0.01018,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"h_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T22:00:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4626444908798268,
"p_shipped": 0.4525203540641638,
"model_mu": 4.297177084549232,
"market_p": 0.4690721649484536,
"divergence": -0.006427674068626821,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T22:00:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter mixed his pitches differently than usual last start",
"share": 0.3146,
"contribution": -0.14388,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_k_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported open before first pitch",
"share": 0.2474,
"contribution": 0.11313,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"roof_open",
"is_retract",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Both catchers gain extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.1695,
"contribution": -0.07753,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_cat_framing_prior",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.141,
"contribution": -0.06448,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1275,
"contribution": -0.05832,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_hr30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4631426806341124,
"p_shipped": 0.48662574681101,
"model_mu": 6.814745242529472,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": -0.0368573193658876,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "betonlineag",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T13:15:49Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.2125,
"contribution": 0.11351,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.2018,
"contribution": 0.10779,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
"share": 0.1893,
"contribution": -0.10109,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 10.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1771,
"contribution": -0.09459,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1111,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 3.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.1082,
"contribution": -0.0578,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-14T22:00:49Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.477428773620663,
"p_shipped": 0.47687993435149006,
"model_mu": 7.787223948573966,
"market_p": 0.493573264781491,
"divergence": -0.016144491160828,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-14T22:00:49Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Light travel this week for the away team",
"share": 0.2358,
"contribution": 0.11351,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
"share": 0.2239,
"contribution": 0.10779,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under",
"share": 0.21,
"contribution": -0.10109,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_b2b"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 10.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1965,
"contribution": -0.09459,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "How often this umpire's calls match the strike zone",
"share": 0.1338,
"contribution": -0.06439,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_acc_asof",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_width_asof"
]
}
]
}
]