Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.47862595240389294,
"p_shipped": 0.4754863011456181,
"model_mu": 3.719625097091368,
"market_p": 0.4780361757105944,
"divergence": 0.000589776693298516,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.5434,
"contribution": -0.22058,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_return_vet",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.173,
"contribution": 0.07023,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1169,
"contribution": 0.04747,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_wp_pb30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.088,
"contribution": 0.03574,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wx_miss",
"wind_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0786,
"contribution": 0.03191,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_platoon_miss"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T23:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5022082698367422,
"p_shipped": 0.5306550047535902,
"model_mu": 4.426402930865569,
"market_p": 0.5283505154639175,
"divergence": -0.026142245627175376,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T23:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.5333,
"contribution": -0.22058,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_opener",
"h_sp_return_vet",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1698,
"contribution": 0.07023,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"a_elo",
"a_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.1238,
"contribution": 0.05121,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
"share": 0.1148,
"contribution": 0.04747,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_wp_pb30",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.0584,
"contribution": -0.02415,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5169441755214109,
"p_shipped": 0.5079789601035217,
"model_mu": 6.821510946021719,
"market_p": 0.5142118863049095,
"divergence": 0.0027322892165013712,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
"share": 0.4477,
"contribution": 0.19893,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_prev_pitches",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1756,
"contribution": -0.07804,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.1703,
"contribution": -0.07567,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"a_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.106,
"contribution": 0.04712,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1003,
"contribution": 0.04455,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_off_hr30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T23:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5297217273235316,
"p_shipped": 0.4955143094144048,
"model_mu": 8.51391250485838,
"market_p": 0.48711340206185555,
"divergence": 0.04260832526167607,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 8.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T23:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "One driver on this card sits far outside its normal range; the model is extrapolating.",
"share": 0.4364,
"contribution": 0.19893,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bf_per_start",
"h_sp_prev_pitches",
"h_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.1712,
"contribution": -0.07804,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.166,
"contribution": -0.07567,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"a_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.123,
"contribution": 0.05605,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
"share": 0.1034,
"contribution": 0.04712,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
}
]