Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers

Sun 9/6 · 1:35 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · UNDER 7.5 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% under · market 51%

FIRST 5 INNINGS

no lean

model 52% under · market 50%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team — day game, then travel27%

Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than mostagainst the under21%

Day gameagainst the under21%

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games17%

The away starter likely goes only an inning or two — relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under14%

Market: Under 7.5 runs at -110 (pinnacle, quoted 12:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~7.6 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade no lean.

TOTALFrozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade C. · the morning pass leaned B; this pass stands down.

anchor Under 7.5 runs -110 → closed -102 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Bullpen arms used two straight daysExtra innings yesterdayCatcher rest spotVeteran rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)High-scoring umpireHot day (90°+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.45124026319025445,
  "p_shipped": 0.4780096844757269,
  "model_mu": 3.140634298999014,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": -0.048759736809745546,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 30.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.437,
    "contribution": -0.21305,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2409,
    "contribution": 0.11745,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.1228,
    "contribution": -0.05986,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "wx_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Both teams below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1073,
    "contribution": -0.05229,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.092,
    "contribution": -0.04485,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T17:30:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4538121589135938,
  "p_shipped": 0.4807581605162707,
  "model_mu": 4.01335120692408,
  "market_p": 0.49612403100775193,
  "divergence": -0.042311872094158154,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T17:30:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter strikes out 30.1% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.453,
    "contribution": -0.21305,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.2497,
    "contribution": 0.11745,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.1075,
    "contribution": -0.05055,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_backup_catcher",
     "h_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0954,
    "contribution": -0.04485,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.0944,
    "contribution": -0.04438,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4130041561360995,
  "p_shipped": 0.5062896043188688,
  "model_mu": 6.338714081578483,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": -0.08699584386390052,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T13:15:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2922,
    "contribution": -0.17926,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.229,
    "contribution": 0.14047,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.224,
    "contribution": -0.1374,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_k30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.1454,
    "contribution": -0.08917,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_opener",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1094,
    "contribution": -0.06707,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_err30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-06T17:30:14Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.43337704749702316,
  "p_shipped": 0.5018064535354602,
  "model_mu": 7.599461497692018,
  "market_p": 0.4910025706940874,
  "divergence": -0.057625523197064266,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-06T17:30:14Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.2713,
    "contribution": -0.17926,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire gives hitters the borderline call more than most",
    "share": 0.2126,
    "contribution": 0.14047,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.2098,
    "contribution": 0.13861,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1714,
    "contribution": -0.11326,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_k30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The away starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.135,
    "contribution": -0.08917,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_opener",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_starts_c10"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]