Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.521315914944354,
"p_shipped": 0.4879220485606964,
"model_mu": 4.367725683894069,
"market_p": 0.5,
"divergence": 0.02131591494435403,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "fanduel",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3187,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2487,
"contribution": 0.10052,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_sp_days_rest_miss",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_pitch_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team playing like a .579 club right now",
"share": 0.1519,
"contribution": 0.06139,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_elo",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.149,
"contribution": 0.06023,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.0883,
"contribution": 0.03567,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wx_miss",
"wind_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "Behind the plate leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0434,
"contribution": -0.01752,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30",
"h_cat_framing_prior"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T23:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.48319416081195343,
"p_shipped": 0.4786822040536753,
"model_mu": 4.4714965358448575,
"market_p": 0.4857881136950904,
"divergence": -0.002593952883136963,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T23:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter strikes out 29.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a higher strikeout rate than average",
"share": 0.5937,
"contribution": -0.33221,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1634,
"contribution": 0.09144,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team playing like a .579 club right now",
"share": 0.1097,
"contribution": 0.06139,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_elo",
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.0914,
"contribution": 0.05114,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"wind_out_comp",
"temp_out"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.0418,
"contribution": -0.02341,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5080474943491954,
"p_shipped": 0.5100621690198951,
"model_mu": 7.137594938555797,
"market_p": 0.5241730279898218,
"divergence": -0.01612553364062641,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "onexbet",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for the home starter \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.2402,
"contribution": 0.11427,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitch_miss",
"a_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"a_sp_inn1_whiff"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.159,
"contribution": -0.07567,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"a_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
"share": 0.155,
"contribution": -0.07376,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1308,
"contribution": 0.06224,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1248,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1183,
"contribution": 0.05629,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.0719,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-15T23:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.509016624992304,
"p_shipped": 0.5138137677914505,
"model_mu": 8.161153707911302,
"market_p": 0.5192802056555269,
"divergence": -0.01026358066322286,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T23:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team above league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.2477,
"contribution": 0.08638,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.217,
"contribution": -0.07567,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"a_err30",
"h_unearned30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "The away team's bullpen rested the last three days",
"share": 0.2115,
"contribution": -0.07376,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_apps_3d",
"a_bp_apps_3d"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.1624,
"contribution": 0.05665,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 4.1 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1614,
"contribution": 0.05629,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
}
]