Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.44348258456831113,
"p_shipped": 0.47035021921091125,
"model_mu": 4.194005800516413,
"market_p": 0.4716494845360826,
"divergence": -0.02816689996777144,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.2982,
"contribution": -0.10941,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2508,
"contribution": 0.09202,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1735,
"contribution": -0.06364,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_dome",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team playing like a .377 club right now",
"share": 0.1606,
"contribution": -0.0589,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_elo",
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.1169,
"contribution": -0.04287,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T16:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.44258563080776137,
"p_shipped": 0.46364982381344194,
"model_mu": 4.866050513810941,
"market_p": 0.4652956298200514,
"divergence": -0.02270999901229004,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T16:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.3012,
"contribution": -0.10941,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2434,
"contribution": 0.08839,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_hr30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Day game",
"share": 0.1752,
"contribution": -0.06364,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"day_game",
"is_dome",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team playing like a .377 club right now",
"share": 0.1622,
"contribution": -0.0589,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_elo",
"a_ra30",
"a_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.118,
"contribution": -0.04287,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"h_sp_tto_decay"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5021695270084121,
"p_shipped": 0.5149446236960362,
"model_mu": 7.056588481205854,
"market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
"divergence": -0.014539984559711283,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T13:15:21Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "projected",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
"share": 0.3384,
"contribution": 0.20975,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_dome",
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.3165,
"contribution": -0.19621,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1308,
"contribution": -0.08107,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 4.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.1206,
"contribution": 0.07479,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0937,
"contribution": 0.05808,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-17T16:00:21Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5029765123716742,
"p_shipped": 0.5068361926375959,
"model_mu": 7.973809291697332,
"market_p": 0.5154639175257731,
"divergence": -0.012487405154098963,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-17T16:00:21Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
"share": 0.3366,
"contribution": 0.20975,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_dome",
"day_game",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
"share": 0.3149,
"contribution": -0.19621,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_rest0",
"a_rest0",
"a_getaway"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The away team allowing 5.3 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
"share": 0.1301,
"contribution": -0.08107,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_ra30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter walks 4.8% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far",
"share": 0.12,
"contribution": 0.07479,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.0984,
"contribution": 0.06131,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_k30",
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
}
]
}
]