Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays

Tue 9/15 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 46%

TOTAL · OVER 8.0 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% over · market 50%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

Offense profile leans over — mostly the home team53%

The away team playing like a .379 club right nowagainst the over28%

Domed park — weather is neutralised11%

The home starter has thrown 129 pitches over 30 days4%

The away team throws out base stealersagainst the over4%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at +109 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~4.9 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 50.9% of 1,034 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -0.5 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.

TOTALFrozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.5 +109 → closed +104 · our way

TOTALanchor Over 8.0 runs -104 → closed -115 · our way

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Heavily used bullpenLow-scoring umpireHigh-strikeout umpireStarter recently back from injury

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.4839188169514989,
  "p_shipped": 0.4573615356404323,
  "model_mu": 4.041930925559253,
  "market_p": 0.4678663239074551,
  "divergence": 0.016052493044043825,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.3433,
    "contribution": 0.13838,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.3195,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team playing like a .379 club right now",
    "share": 0.2008,
    "contribution": -0.08091,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.0787,
    "contribution": 0.03172,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "alt_kft",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 129 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.0306,
    "contribution": 0.01234,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
    "share": 0.0271,
    "contribution": -0.01091,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5198515530788884,
  "p_shipped": 0.46104267981584296,
  "model_mu": 4.894790132276115,
  "market_p": 0.46410256410256406,
  "divergence": 0.055748988976324354,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.5282,
    "contribution": 0.15216,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team playing like a .379 club right now",
    "share": 0.2809,
    "contribution": -0.08091,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.1101,
    "contribution": 0.03172,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "alt_kft",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter has thrown 129 pitches over 30 days",
    "share": 0.0428,
    "contribution": 0.01234,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
    "share": 0.0379,
    "contribution": -0.01091,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "h_wp_pb30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5240248002163347,
  "p_shipped": 0.5010869379541028,
  "model_mu": 7.603079994356533,
  "market_p": 0.5038560411311055,
  "divergence": 0.020168759085229193,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T13:15:18Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.2602,
    "contribution": 0.12904,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2244,
    "contribution": 0.11127,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.2129,
    "contribution": -0.10558,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1197,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.0946,
    "contribution": 0.04691,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
    "share": 0.0882,
    "contribution": -0.04376,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_wp_pb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5475797507333978,
  "p_shipped": 0.502230399518013,
  "model_mu": 8.697587862333089,
  "market_p": 0.4961439588688946,
  "divergence": 0.0514357918645032,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-15T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.2866,
    "contribution": 0.12904,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2775,
    "contribution": 0.12495,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.2345,
    "contribution": -0.10558,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days",
    "share": 0.1042,
    "contribution": 0.04691,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
    "share": 0.0972,
    "contribution": -0.04376,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_wp_pb30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]