Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays

Wed 9/16 · 5:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 4.5

B cards like this have won 49% over · market 48%

TOTAL · OVER 8.0 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% over · market 50%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 9-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter strikes out 15.7% of batters, adjusted — a lower strikeout rate than average34%

Offense profile leans over — mostly the home team30%

The away team playing like a .378 club right nowagainst the over13%

Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year — fewer called strikes8%

Domed park — weather is neutralised6%

WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game

No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher — graded at league averageagainst the over9%

Market: First-5-innings Over 4.5 at +101 (pinnacle, quoted 4:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~5.5 runs · divergence 9 points — band B. B-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. B cards in this market have won 49.2% of 620 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), -2.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen B at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Over 4.5 +101 → closed +101 · unchanged

TOTALanchor Over 8.0 runs -106 → closed -106 · unchanged

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)High-scoring umpire

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 5 runs under its closing total — 3 runs against a total of 8. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded · this card grades the OVER — the rule points the other way

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
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  "p_shipped": 0.4972903076456794,
  "model_mu": 4.750041870146307,
  "market_p": 0.4870466321243523,
  "divergence": 0.08359734298467181,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 15.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.3992,
    "contribution": 0.18388,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bf_per_start",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.2898,
    "contribution": 0.13348,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team playing like a .378 club right now",
    "share": 0.1521,
    "contribution": -0.07007,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0903,
    "contribution": 0.04161,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.0685,
    "contribution": 0.03156,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "alt_kft",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5678356187325074,
  "p_shipped": 0.4880302086792525,
  "model_mu": 5.490149636199886,
  "market_p": 0.48062015503875977,
  "divergence": 0.08721546369374766,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter strikes out 15.7% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower strikeout rate than average",
    "share": 0.34,
    "contribution": 0.18388,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_bf_per_start",
     "a_sp_velo_dev"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.3013,
    "contribution": 0.16295,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_k30",
     "h_platoon_share"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team playing like a .378 club right now",
    "share": 0.1296,
    "contribution": -0.07007,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_elo",
     "a_ra30",
     "h_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.0938,
    "contribution": -0.05073,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_backup_catcher"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.0769,
    "contribution": 0.04161,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.0584,
    "contribution": 0.03156,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "alt_kft",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5533495631410436,
  "p_shipped": 0.4846404213823012,
  "model_mu": 7.783176869295539,
  "market_p": 0.493573264781491,
  "divergence": 0.05977629835955256,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.2844,
    "contribution": 0.13044,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter walks 4.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.2399,
    "contribution": 0.11004,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_opener",
     "a_sp_bf_per_start"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.1854,
    "contribution": -0.08502,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1725,
    "contribution": 0.07912,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1178,
    "contribution": 0.05403,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-16T21:30:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5538224140691654,
  "p_shipped": 0.4811264934620214,
  "model_mu": 8.73727829361521,
  "market_p": 0.5,
  "divergence": 0.053822414069165436,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 8.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-16T21:30:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "lost",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
    "share": 0.2395,
    "contribution": 0.13044,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_dome",
     "park_f5_asof",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter walks 4.2% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.2021,
    "contribution": 0.11004,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_opener",
     "a_sp_bf_per_start"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1836,
    "contribution": 0.09998,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_k30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "h_off_bb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The away team allowing 5.2 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average. Priced in, and it went too far",
    "share": 0.1561,
    "contribution": -0.08502,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_ra30",
     "a_elo",
     "h_ra30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No 2025 record of strikes gained behind the plate for the away catcher \u2014 graded at league average",
    "share": 0.1195,
    "contribution": -0.06509,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "a_framing_miss",
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0992,
    "contribution": 0.05403,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_tz2"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]