Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5383970570203124,
"p_shipped": 0.5258727349211567,
"model_mu": 4.075127236516933,
"market_p": 0.5335051546391752,
"divergence": 0.004891902381137125,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3158,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2948,
"contribution": 0.12021,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"a_platoon_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.229,
"contribution": 0.09338,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_elo",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
"share": 0.0776,
"contribution": 0.03165,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_dome",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 467 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.0496,
"contribution": -0.02024,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_days_rest_miss",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The away team throws out base stealers",
"share": 0.0331,
"contribution": -0.01351,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_cs30",
"h_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5664767136391088,
"p_shipped": 0.5218177412167869,
"model_mu": 4.925722078523181,
"market_p": 0.5219638242894057,
"divergence": 0.0445128893497031,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 4.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.4336,
"contribution": 0.1314,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.3081,
"contribution": 0.09338,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_elo",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
"share": 0.1044,
"contribution": 0.03165,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_dome",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.087,
"contribution": -0.02638,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_edge_cs_rel",
"ump_acc_rel"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The home starter has thrown 467 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.0668,
"contribution": -0.02024,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_days_rest_miss",
"a_sp_starts_c10"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5016784538922234,
"p_shipped": 0.5151701979357252,
"model_mu": 6.89879858655152,
"market_p": 0.5205128205128204,
"divergence": -0.01883436662059701,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "won",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
"share": 0.3193,
"contribution": 0.12967,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_dome",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1462,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter has thrown 29 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.1374,
"contribution": -0.05581,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_debut"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1368,
"contribution": 0.05554,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_k30",
"a_platoon_miss",
"h_off_bb30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1334,
"contribution": 0.0542,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_elo",
"h_rs30"
]
},
{
"family": "bullpen",
"phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.127,
"contribution": -0.05156,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_bp_apps_3d",
"h_bp_pitches_3d",
"h_bp_k_pct30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.536352763488464,
"p_shipped": 0.5024803152593744,
"model_mu": 8.055953457408908,
"market_p": 0.4910025706940874,
"divergence": 0.04535019279437652,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 7.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T22:00:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Domed park \u2014 weather is neutralised",
"share": 0.346,
"contribution": 0.12967,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_dome",
"park_f5_asof",
"alt_kft"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans over",
"share": 0.189,
"contribution": 0.07084,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_acc_asof",
"ump_edge_cs_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The home team striking out less than league average, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1715,
"contribution": 0.0643,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_k30",
"h_off_bb30",
"a_off_xbh30"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "The away starter has thrown 29 pitches over 30 days",
"share": 0.1489,
"contribution": -0.05581,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_sp_pitches_30d",
"a_sp_opener",
"a_sp_debut"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1446,
"contribution": 0.0542,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_elo",
"h_rs30"
]
}
]
}
]