SPOTTER.
You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
Game View
first pitch 7:15 PM CDT

Washington Nationals @ St. Louis Cardinals

Sat 9/19 · 7:15 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: unknown
FIRST 5 INNINGS
no lean
model 51% over · market 53%
TOTAL
no lean
model 50% over · market 52%
the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are
THE PICTURE — what's driving the 3-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read
92°F — heat carries the ball32%
Team strength & form leans over22%
Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 gamesagainst the over12%
Starting pitchers leans over — mostly the home team5%
The away team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches4%
WHAT WE COULDN'T SEEpriced into our number — not evidence about this game
No recent umpire zone reading against the league — graded on league-typical assumptionsagainst the over24%
Market: First-5-innings Over 4.0 at -120 (pinnacle, quoted 8:15 AM CDT) · the full picture prices it -105 · model expects ~4.3 runs · divergence 3 points — band none.
SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE
Hot day (90°+)
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. Umpire not yet confirmed. Lineups not posted at grade time. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).
Raw grade details (all passes)
[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5538813057340664,
  "p_shipped": 0.5133196037328434,
  "model_mu": 4.343616065026326,
  "market_p": 0.5259067357512953,
  "divergence": 0.027974569982771036,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "92\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.3195,
    "contribution": 0.1699,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "roof_open",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.2422,
    "contribution": -0.12879,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_rel_miss",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "Team strength & form leans over",
    "share": 0.2232,
    "contribution": 0.11867,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_rs30",
     "h_ra30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1213,
    "contribution": -0.06449,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_xbh30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0516,
    "contribution": 0.02742,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d",
     "h_sp_tto_decay"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team's catcher loses strikes on close pitches",
    "share": 0.0422,
    "contribution": 0.02246,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "h_framing_miss"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5450942000493444,
  "p_shipped": 0.5007579200114233,
  "model_mu": 7.981001854784608,
  "market_p": 0.5154639175257731,
  "divergence": 0.02963028252357125,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-18T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "unknown",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "strength",
    "phrase": "The home team allowing 5.7 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 above league average",
    "share": 0.2961,
    "contribution": 0.18561,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_ra30",
     "a_rs30",
     "a_elo"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "92\u00b0F \u2014 heat carries the ball",
    "share": 0.1775,
    "contribution": 0.11125,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "temp_out",
     "wind_out_comp",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "lineup",
    "phrase": "Recent call-ups in both lineups",
    "share": 0.1393,
    "contribution": 0.08733,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_recent_debuts",
     "a_recent_debuts"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Both teams below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.13,
    "contribution": -0.08146,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_hr30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "No record of strikes gained behind the plate for the home team \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.1111,
    "contribution": -0.06966,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "h_framing_miss",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "a_wp_pb30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.0947,
    "contribution": -0.05936,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "ump_zone_miss",
     "ump_gate_miss",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.0513,
    "contribution": 0.03216,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "a_bp_pitches_3d",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]